Data | One year since Article 370 revocation: economy crippled, more locals take up militancy, and more

Data | One year since Article 370 revocation: economy crippled, more locals take up militancy, and more

Two spells of lockdown — the first after Jammu and Kashmir was stripped of its statehood and its special constitutional status and the second related to COVID-19 — have left the erstwhile State in disarray.

With the tourism industry crippled and 4G Internet still not restored, J&K’s economy has suffered. While terrorism considerably dipped, cross-border infiltrations have gone up and more locals are being recruited for terrorist activities.

Internet snapped

The Internet shutdown in the J&K U.T. between August 4, 2019 and March 4, 2020 was the longest in any democracy. Even after the shutdown ended, only 2G and broadband Internet were restored.

image/svg+xml8060402002012201420162018202046shutdownsrecordedin 2020with five monthsleft in the year

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Tourism hit

Tourism, which forms 8-10% of J&K’s GDP, was in a shambles after the August 5, 2019 lockdown. Less than 50,000 tourists visited the U.T. between August and December 2019.

Economy shock

In the 120 days after August 5, 2019, the 10 districts of the Kashmir Valley suffered a loss of ₹17,878.18 cr. according to the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce & Industry. Here is how the figure was arrived at:

image/svg+xmlABCDEFY18 economicoutput of J&K~60% of thatfrom 10 districts~40% of that forthe 120 days~15% at whicheconomy operated~Net loss =C minus D93,628 cr.51,495 cr.20,598 cr.2,718 cr.17,877 cr.

State of joblessness

The CMIE data show that the unemployment rate (UR) breached the 20% mark in August 2019 after staying below the figure for 30 months.

image/svg+xmlAn UR of 22.4% wasreported in August 20193020100Jan. 2016July 2020

Also read: No new government jobs in J&K a year after Article 370 move

Lockdown impact

Terrorism-related deaths hit a low in 2012 after continuously declining from 2001. However, terrorism returned to the Valley since, peaking in 2018.

image/svg+xmlThe Aug. 5 lockdown did reduce thefatalities in 2019 after the 2018 peak4,0001,00040010020002005201020152020All Terrorismrelated deaths2018Terroristdeaths

Fatalities drop

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the lockdown and increase in Army presence led to a decrease in terrorism-related deaths. Yet the fatalities post-lockdown were higher compared to the low levels seen in 2012.

image/svg+xmlPeriodIncidents ofkillingsCiviliandeathsPersonneldeathsTerroristdeaths1 year beforeAug. 5, 2019214641172761 year sinceAug. 5, 20191133638181

Local threat

Despite the decrease in terrorism-related deaths, the number of local recruits increased. In 2020, until March, 87.5% of the militants killed were locals according to SATP.

image/svg+xmlYear%locals201855%201979%202087.5%2020 data upto MarchTable 1

Also, according to data furnished in Parliament, infiltration attempts across the border increased significantly.

image/svg+xmlPeriodInfiltrationattemptsNetinfiltration88-day periodbetween Aug. 5and Oct. 31, 2019845988-day periodbetween May 9and Aug. 4, 20195332Table 2

Also read: Are people in J&K citizens or subjects?

Source: Jammu and Kashmir: The Impact of Lockdowns on Human Rights, internshutdowns.in

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