Pune now epicentre of outbreak in Maharashtra – When will the city turn a corner?

Pune now epicentre of outbreak in Maharashtra – When will the city turn a corner?

Pune has a worryingly large elderly population.

Pune has a worryingly large elderly population.&nbsp | &nbspPhoto Credit:&nbspPTI

Key Highlights

  • Pune recorded over 3,000 fresh COVID-19 cases on July 28, taking its total tally up ro 72,782
  • Pune’s active case count at its peak could rise as high as 60,000
  • As per the IOR’s Hybrid model projections, the end of the outbreak in the city will only arrive at the start of November

Since the start of the outbreak in India, attention has, largely, been focused on the nation’s capital, along with its financial capital. Both, Delhi and Mumbai, until recently, had come to become the cities of greatest concern exhibiting markedly higher rates of COVID-19 spread relative to the rest of the country. 

However, the month of July has seen both cities pull off remarkable turnarounds, managing to reduce daily COVID-19 numbers while ramping up testing as well. But Maharashtra, in particular, isn’t out of the woods yet, with Pune, a city with just a third of the population of Mumbai, now becoming the epicentre of the outbreak in the country. 

Pune recorded over 3,000 fresh COVID-19 cases on July 28, taking its total tally up ro 72,782. The 38 patients who succumbed to the infection over the same 24-hour period also took its death toll to 1,737. 

Since July 22, Pune’s daily COVID-19 total has consistently breached the 3,000 mark yet the rise in cases began much earlier at the tail end of June. Recognising the alarming trend, Pune authorities instituted a strict 10-day lockdown between July 14 and July 23. However, large crowds were seen on the streets in Pune prior to the lockdown, as residents scrambled to procure groceries ignoring any kind of social distancing protocols. 

On July 19, when some restrictions on essential services were lifted, huge swarms of people once again took to the streets. Part of the rise in COVID-19 cases in the city could be attributed to the increase in testing but medical experts remain concerned over the city’s healthcare infrastructure, especially since the city houses a relatively large elderly population. District officials have offered assurances that Pune’s bed shortage problem will be resolved by the end of the month though. 

When will it end for Pune?

As for what is in store for Pune in the weeks ahead, according to the projections from the India Outbreak Report, in the most likely scenario, Pune will only arrive at its peak by mid-August, after which daily cases will begin to stabilise and gradually drop. Pune’s active case count at its peak could rise as high as 60,000. 

The IOR’s Hybrid model shows that Pune may very well have a couple of long months ahead of it. As per its projections, the end of the outbreak in the city will only arrive at the start of November. However, the IOR’s SEIR model projects a more speedier end. According to the SEIR model, Pune will be able to claim victory over COVID-19 by the third week of September. 

It is important to remember though, that these projections have been made using historical data. Changes in governmental policy and guidelines, testing rates, and social behaviour in the days and weeks ahead will certainly warrant a revision of the current projections.

Disclaimer: The COVID-19 Pandemic, is rapidly evolving, with new findings and insights being discovered daily. Stories based on the research document contains the observations and conclusions arrived at by Protiviti and Times Network basis the data and information examined and relied. Stories based on this document do not constitute or claim to serve as an advisory for any medical, safety or regulatory action and cannot be referred and relied in any disputes for challenging any other claims, reports, analysis of third parties on similar subject

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